Table 5.

Mean results of 10 Monte Carlo microsimulations

Patient OutcomesEstimated Glomerular Filtration Rate (eGFR) ReportingSerum Creatinine ReportingMean Difference Using eGFR Reporting
Deaths4,6274,640−13
Transitions from CKD (FN-CKD or TP-CKD) to ESRD1,2591,288−29
Number of FP-CKD categorizations17,0155,66711,348
Patient-years spent in FN-CKD2532,325−2,072
Patient-years spent in TP-CKD22,19619,8422,354
  • Each microsimulation was composed of 10,000 trials of 18 one-year cycles. Serum creatinine and eGFR measurements occurred once per cycle. CKD, chronic kidney disease, stages 3 to 4 (glomerular filtration rate 15 to 59 ml/min/1.73 m2); FN-CKD, false negative state for patient with chronic kidney disease, stages 3 to 4; TP-CKD, true positive state for patient with chronic kidney disease, stages 3 to 4; ESRD, end stage renal disease (glomerular filtration rate < 15 ml/min/1.73 m2); FP-CKD, false-positive state for patient with chronic kidney disease, stages 3 to 4.