Table 1.

Prevalence, incidence, mortality, progression to ESRD, effect of therapy, and test characteristics

ProbabilitiesAge (yr)Base Case (%/yr)RangeSource
Annual incidence of CKD50-640.71Estimated from Coresh (1)
Annual mortality in the United States600.97Arias (23)
Annual mortality of patients with ESRD6214.9USRDS ADR (24)
Prevalence of CKD at age 600.1490.075 to 0.224Coresh (1)
Annual mortality of patients with CKD0.0500.0076 to 0.17Foley, Go, Gerstein, Jafar, Sarnak (3, 18, 19, 20, 21)
Annual probability of progressing from CKD to ESRD0.0760.023 to 0.160Foley, Jafar, Sarnak (1921)
Effect of therapy on mortality and progression
Effect of therapy on annual mortality of CKD patients (CKD mortality coefficient)10.76 to 1.00Gerstein, Sarnak, Jafar (18, 20, 21)
Effect of therapy on annual progression from CKD to ESRD (CKD progression coefficient)0.7280.637 to 0.819Jafar, Sarnak (20, 21)
Test characteristics of eGFR and serum creatinine
    sensitivity of eGFR in detecting CKD0.9240.919 to 0.928Rigalleau, Froissart (25, 26)
    specificity of eGFR in detecting CKD0.8350.784 to 0.885Rigalleau, Froissart (25, 26)
    sensitivity of serum creatinine in detecting CKD0.5590.385 to 0.90Newman, Xia, Oddoze (27, 28, 29)
    specificity of serum creatinine in detecting CKD0.9500.90 to 0.975Newman, Xia, Oddoze (27, 28, 29)
  • eGFR was derived using the abbreviated MDRD equation. ESRD, end stage renal disease (glomerular filtration rate < 15 ml/min/1.73 m2); CKD, chronic kidney disease, stages 3 to 4 (glomerular filtration rate 15 to 59 ml/min/1.73 m2); USRDS ADR, United States Renal Data Service, Annual Data Report.