Table 2.

Performance (area under the receiver curve and area under the precision-recall curve) of different machine learning algorithms for prediction of death or dialysis need at hospital day 1, 3, 5, and 7

AlgorithmDay 1Day 3Day 5Day 7
Internal ValidationExternal ValidationInternal ValidationExternal ValidationInternal ValidationExternal ValidationInternal ValidationExternal Validation 
AUROC (95% CI)AUPRC (95% CI)AUROC (95% CI)AUPRC (95% CI)AUROC (95% CI)AUPRC (95% CI)AUROC (95% CI)AUPRC (95% CI)AUROC (95% CI)AUPRC (95% CI)AUROC (95% CI)AUPRC (95% CI)AUROC (95% CI)AUPRC (95% CI)AUROC (95% CI)AUPRC  (95% CI) 
LASSO0.95 (0.95 to 0.95)0.56 (0.55 to 0.57)0.73 (0.72 to 0.73)0.18 (0.17 to 0.18)0.93 (0.93 to 0.94)0.63 (0.63 to 0.64)0.85 (0.85 to 0.86)0.35 (0.35 to 0.36)0.93 (0.93 to 0.93)0.68 (0.68 to 0.69)0.85 (0.85 to 0.85)0.46 (0.46 to 0.46)0.92 (0.92 to 0.92)0.70 (0.70 to 0.71)0.86 (0.86 to 0.86)0.55 (0.55 to 0.55)
Logistic regression0.87 (0.87 to 0.88)0.16 (0.15 to 0.17)0.71 (0.71 to 0.72)0.06 (0.06 to 0.06)0.86 (0.86 to 0.86)0.24 (0.24 to 0.25)0.77 (0.76 to 0.77)0.17 (0.16 to 0.17)0.85 (0.85 to 0.86)0.28 (0.28 to 0.28)0.78 (0.78 to 0.78)0.27 (0.27 to 0.27)0.84 (0.84 to 0.84)0.33 (0.32 to 0.33)0.81 (0.8 to 0.81)0.36 (0.36 to 0.36)
Random forest0.92 (0.92 to 0.93)0.63 (0.62 to 0.64)0.84 (0.84 to 0.84)0.29 (0.29 to 0.29)0.94 (0.94 to 0.94)0.71 (0.71 to 0.72)0.84 (0.84 to 0.84)0.38 (0.38 to 0.39)0.93 (0.93 to 0.93)0.71 (0.71 to 0.72)0.84 (0.84 to 0.84)0.46 (0.46 to 0.46)0.92 (0.92 to 0.92)0.72 (0.72 to 0.73)0.83 (0.83 to 0.83)0.51 (0.51 to 0.51)
XGBoost (imputed)0.96 (0.96 to 0.96)0.67 (0.66 to 0.68)0.82 (0.82 to 0.82)0.21 (0.21 to 0.22)0.95 (0.95 to 0.95)0.73 (0.72 to 0.73)0.86 (0.86 to 0.86)0.39 (0.39 to 0.39)0.93 (0.93 to 0.94)0.73 (0.73 to 0.74)0.85 (0.85 to 0.85)0.47 (0.46 to 0.47)0.92 (0.92 to 0.92)0.73 (0.73 to 0.74)0.84 (0.84 to 0.84)0.52 (0.52 to 0.52)
XGBoost (nonimputed)0.98 (0.98 to 0.98)0.82 (0.81 to 0.83)0.87 (0.87 to 0.87)0.27 (0.26 to 0.27)0.96 (0.96 to 0.96)0.8 (0.8 to 0.81)0.86 (0.86 to 0.86)0.42 (0.42 to 0.42)0.94 (0.94 to 0.95)0.79 (0.79 to 0.79)0.86 (0.86 to 0.86)0.5 (0.5 to 0.5)0.93 (0.93 to 0.93)0.78 (0.77 to 0.78)0.85 (0.85 to 0.85)0.54 (0.54 to 0.54)
  • 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; AUROC, area under the receiver operating characteristic; AUPRC, area under the precision-recall curve; LASSO, Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator; XGBoost, eXtreme Gradient Boosting.