Table 4.

Concordance probability of different multivariable models including serum uromodulin to predict all-cause mortality, kidney failure, and major cardiovascular events

OutcomeEventsUnivariableModel 1aModel 2bModel 3c
All-cause mortality335/5143
 Concordance probability for event within first year0.6740.6220.6050.646
 Concordance probability for event within 4 years0.5730.5890.5820.555
Kidney failure229/5143
 Concordance probability for event within first year0.7440.7960.6990.706
 Concordance probability for event within 4 years0.5750.6670.7690.740
 Concordance probability for event within first year0.5670.6770.6470.659
 Concordance probability for event within 4 years0.5280.5510.5470.575
  • Concordance probability indicates the discriminatory power and predictive ability of statistical models for respective outcomes. It estimates the probability of concordance between predicted and observed outcomes. MACE, major cardiovascular event—defined as a composite of fatal cardiovascular event, nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, or incident peripheral vascular disease.

  • a Adjusted for age, sex, and body mass index.

  • b Model 1 plus eGFR and urinary albumin-creatinine ratio.

  • c Model 2 plus prevalent cardiovascular disease, diabetes and hypertension at baseline, systolic BP, diastolic BP, serum high and LDL concentration, serum C-reactive protein and phosphorus concentration, prescription of diuretics, and lipid- and BP-lowering medication.