Table 2.

Results from nested regression models examining changes in adjusted probability of employment over time

CovariatesCalendar Year and Patient DemographicsPlus Patient ComorbiditiesPlus Regional Unemployment
Estimate, %a95% CI, %Estimate, %a95% CI, %Estimate, %a95% CI, %
Change in probability from 1997–2001 to
 2002–2007b−0.1−0.4 to 0.20.80.5 to 1.11.10.8 to 1.4
 2008–2013c0.3−0.0 to 0.61.61.3 to 1.84.74.3 to 5.1
Calendar year
 1996ReferenceReferenceReference
 19971.60.8 to 2.31.81.0 to 2.51.40.7 to 2.1
 19982.21.5 to 3.02.31.6 to 3.01.50.8 to 2.3
 19992.41.6 to 3.12.72.0 to 3.41.60.9 to 2.3
 20001.81.1 to 2.52.31.6 to 3.00.90.2 to 1.6
 20012.01.2 to 2.72.61.9 to 3.31.81.1 to 2.5
 20021.50.7 to 2.22.21.5 to 3.02.41.7 to 3.2
 20030.6−0.2 to 1.31.40.7 to 2.11.81.1 to 2.5
 20040.4−0.4 to 1.11.40.7 to 2.11.40.7 to 2.1
 20051.81.1 to 2.63.22.5 to 3.92.41.7 to 3.1
 20062.51.8 to 3.24.03.3 to 4.72.61.9 to 3.3
 20072.82.1 to 3.54.33.6 to 5.03.42.7 to 4.1
 20082.51.8 to 3.24.23.5 to 5.04.43.7 to 5.1
 20091.60.9 to 2.33.32.6 to 4.06.65.9 to 7.4
 20100.6−0.1 to 1.32.31.6 to 3.06.05.3 to 6.8
 20110.90.2 to 1.62.51.8 to 3.25.74.9 to 6.4
 20122.72.0 to 3.54.03.3 to 4.76.45.6 to 7.1
 20133.22.5 to 3.94.63.9 to 5.36.45.6 to 7.1
Demographics and socioeconomic status
 Age group, yr
  18–28ReferenceReferenceReference
  29–38−3.7−4.2 to −3.1−2.1−2.6 to −1.6−2.1−2.6 to −1.6
  39–48−5.4−5.9 to −4.9−2.4−2.9 to −2.0−2.4−2.8 to −1.9
  49–54−8.6−9.1 to −8.1−4.5−4.9 to −4.0−4.4−4.8 to −3.9
 Women−6.0−6.2 to −5.8−6.1−6.4 to −5.9−6.1−6.4 to −5.9
 Race
  WhiteReferenceReferenceReference
  Black−7.7−8.0 to −7.4−8.0−8.3 to −7.8−7.9−8.1 to −7.6
  Other−1.9−2.4 to −1.4−1.9−2.4 to −1.4−1.6−2.1 to −1.1
 Hispanic ethnicity−10.4−10.7 to −10.1−10.3−10.7 to −10.0−9.7−10.1 to −9.4
 Disability−21.0−21.2 to −20.7−18.4−18.7 to −18.1−18.5−18.8 to −18.2
 County-level median household income
  First (bottom) one fifth−10.8−11.2 to −10.5−9.2−9.5 to −8.8−6.9−7.3 to −6.5
  Second one fifth−7.4−7.8 to −7.0−6.2−6.5 to −5.8−5.1−5.5 to −4.7
  Third one fifth−5.1−5.5 to −4.7−4.1−4.5 to −3.8−3.6−3.9 to −3.2
  Fourth one fifth−5.2−5.6 to −4.8−4.8−5.1 to −4.4−3.7−4.1 to −3.4
  Fifth (top) one fifthReferenceReferenceReference
Comorbidities
 Diabetes−4.2−4.5 to −4.0−4.2−4.5 to −4.0
 Coronary heart disease−1.7−2.1 to −1.3−1.8−2.2 to −1.3
 Cancer−3.6−4.3 to −2.8−3.6−4.3 to −2.8
 Heart failure−5.5−5.8 to −5.2−5.5−5.8 to −5.2
 Lung disease−5.0−5.7 to −4.3−5.0−5.7 to −4.3
 Cerebrovascular disease−7.3−7.8 to −6.7−7.3−7.8 to −6.8
 Peripheral vascular disease−2.5−3.0 to −2.0−2.5−3.0 to −2.1
 Smokes−5.1−5.6 to −4.7−5.2−5.6 to −4.8
 Drug or alcohol abuse−14.1−14.6 to −13.5−14.0−14.5 to −13.5
 Immobility−8.0−8.6 to −7.3−7.8−8.5 to −7.2
 Hemoglobin, g/dl
  <9−2.7−3.0 to −2.4−2.7−3.0 to −2.3
  9 to <11−1.2−1.5 to −0.9−1.2−1.5 to −0.9
  11 or higherReferenceReference
 Serum albumin, g/dl
  <3−9.6−9.9 to −9.2−9.6−9.9 to −9.2
  3 to <3.5−5.6−5.9 to −5.3−5.6−6.0 to −5.3
  3.5 or higherReferenceReference
 Body mass index, kg/m2
  <30ReferenceReference
  30 or higher2.52.2 to 2.72.42.2 to 2.7
 eGFR, ml/min per 1.73 m2−0.4−0.5 to −0.4−0.4−0.5 to −0.4
Unemployment rate
 County-level unemployment rate−0.9−0.9 to −0.8
  • 95% CI, 95% confidence interval.

  • a Percentage change in the absolute probability of employment associated with a 1-U increase in a covariate.

  • b Change in the average of the adjusted probabilities of employment from the first 6 years (1996–2001) to the middle 6 years (2002–2007).

  • c Change in the average of the adjusted probabilities of employment from the first 6 years (1996–2001) to the last 6 years (2008–2013).