Table 4.

Multivariable prediction model for the course of eGFR during follow-upa

ModelISN/RPS Class I–V (n=105)ISN/RPS Class III/IV (±V)b (n=91)
β (95% CI)P Valueβ (95% CI)P Value
Intercept116.5 (100.1 to 132.8)<0.001116.4 (98.9 to 133.9)<0.001
Time, yr−0.7 (−1.5 to 0.0)0.06−0.6 (−1.4 to 0.2)0.13
Baseline predictors
 Nonwhite−11.4 (−21.9 to −0.8)0.04−13.5 (−25.2 to −1.7)0.03
 Age0, yr−0.8 (−1.2 to −0.4)<0.001−0.8 (−1.2 to −0.4)<0.001
 Normal glomeruli/minimal leukocyte influx, %0.2 (0.1 to 0.4)0.010.2 (0.0 to 0.5)0.03
 Cellular/fibrocellular crescents, %−0.4 (−0.6 to −0.2)0.001−0.4 (−0.6 to −0.1)0.003
 Fibrous crescents, %−1.4 (−2.4 to −0.5)0.004−1.6 (−2.6 to −0.5)0.004
 IF/TA≥25%−40.5 (−56.2 to −24.8)<0.001−41.4 (−58.3 to −24.4)<0.001
  • β indicates eGFR in ml/min per 1.73 m2. eGFR at time t is given by the following: eGFR(t) = intercept + βTime×t + Z, where Z is the value given by the baseline predictors of the patient: Z = βAge0 × Age0[y] + βNormal glomeruli/minimal leukocyte influx × Normal glomeruli/minimal leukocyte influx[%] + βcellular/fibrocellular crescents × cellular/fibrocellular crescents[%] + βfibrous crescents × fibrous crescents[%] + βnonwhite (if nonwhite) + βIF/TA≥25% (if IF/TA≥25%). ISN/RPS, International Society of Nephrology/Renal Pathology Society; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; Age0, age at time of biopsy; IF/TA, interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy.

  • a Mixed-model analysis.

  • b Patients with class III/IV (±V) lupus nephritis who received induction immunosuppression with cytotoxic drugs were analyzed separately from the complete cohort.