Table 3.

Multivariable prediction models for renal flare and ESRD

ModelISN/RPS Class I–V (n=105)ISN/RPS Class III/IV (±V)a (n=91)
HR (95% CI)P ValueHR (95% CI)P Value
Renal flare (n=99)
 Nonwhite2.23 (1.23 to 4.04)0.012.08 (1.09 to 3.98)0.03
 % Fibrinoid necrosis (glomerular)1.04 (1.00 to 1.07)0.041.04 (1.00 to 1.08)0.04
ESRD (n=105)
 Nonwhite7.16 (2.34 to 21.91)0.0019.12 (2.85 to 29.22)<0.001
 Age0, yr1.02 (0.99 to 1.06)0.181.02 (0.99 to 1.06)0.23
 eGFR0, mL/min per 1.73 m20.98 (0.97 to 1.00)<0.050.99 (0.97 to 1.00)0.12
 % Fibrinoid necrosis (glomerular)1.08 (1.02 to 1.13)0.0041.07 (1.02 to 1.13)0.01
 % Fibrous crescents1.09 (1.02 to 1.17)0.021.10 (1.02 to 1.19)0.01
 IF/TA≥25%3.89 (1.25 to 12.14)0.024.53 (1.40 to 14.73)0.01
  • ISN/RPS, International Society of Nephrology/Renal Pathology Society; HR, hazard ratio; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; Age0, age at time of biopsy; eGFR0, eGFR at the time of renal biopsy; IF/TA, interstitial fibrosis/tubular atrophy.

  • a Patients with class III/IV (±V) lupus nephritis who received induction immunosuppressive treatment with cytotoxic drugs were analyzed separately from the complete cohort.