Table 4.

Multivariate analysis for ESRD stratified according to stage of CKD at baseline

VariableCKD Stage 3, n=980CKD Stage 4, n=736CKD Stage 5, n=266
HR (95% CI)P ValueHR (95% CI)P ValueHR (95% CI)P Value
Age, per 5 yr0.66 (0.56 to 0.73)<0.0010.82 (0.77 to 0.86)<0.0010.95 (0.86 to 0.95)0.01
Mean systolic BP, per 5 mmHg0.95 (0.90 to 1.10)0.921.00 (0.95 to 1.05)0.541.00 (0.95 to 1.05)0.96
Baseline eGFR, per 5 ml/min per 1.73 m20.77 (0.66 to 0.95)<0.010.56 (0.47 to 0.69)<0.0010.25 (0.17 to 0.35)<0.001
Urinary protein, per 0.1 g/24 h0.99 (0.95 to 1.02)0.441.03 (1.02 to 1.06)<0.0011.03 (1.01 to 1.05)0.001
Hemoglobin, per 1 g/dl1.10 (0.90 to 1.34)0.621.00 (0.90 to 1.10)0.970.82 (0.74 to 0.90)0.002
Albumin, per 0.1 g/dl0.87 (0.79 to 0.95)0.0020.96 (0.92 to 1.01)0.051.04 (0.99 to 1.09)0.10
Phosphate, per 0.5 mg/dl1.17 (0.93 to 1.47)0.171.06 (0.95 to 1.19)0.300.99 (0.93 to 1.07)0.97
Corrected calcium, per 0.5 mg/dl0.81 (0.60 to 1.09)0.160.84 (0.73 to 0.96)0.011.05 (0.94 to 1.18)0.37
Parathyroid hormone, per 10 pg/ml1.10 (0.90 to 1.21)0.181.00 (1.00 to 1.00)0.031.00 (1.00 to 1.00)0.08
Ln KIM-1, 1-SD increase2.39 (1.69 to 3.41)<0.0011.26 (1.04 to 1.52)0.021.05 (0.84 to 1.32)0.66
Ln NGAL, 1-SD increase1.72 (1.04 to 2.86)0.041.25 (0.99 to 1.56)0.061.30 (0.99 to 1.70)0.06
c Statistic for baseline model0.87 (0.83 to 0.92)0.83 (0.79 to 0.86)0.77 (0.71 to 0.83)
c Statistic for baseline plus biomarkers model0.89 (0.85 to 0.93)0.83 (0.79 to 0.86)0.79 (0.73 to 0.85)
  • HR, hazard ratio; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval; Ln, natural logarithm; KIM-1, kidney injury molecule-1; NGAL, neutrophil gelatinase‚Äďassociated lipocalin.