Table 3.

Lifetime risk for CKD stage 3 or higher using the four sensitivity definitions for CKD stage 3

Age (yr)OutcomeYears from Baseline Age
510203040
Women
 4510.8 (0.3 to 1.3)2.2 (1.4 to 3.0)8.6 (7.3 to 9.9)26.8 (24.6 to 29.0)50.7 (47.7 to 53.6)
20.8 (0.3 to 1.3)2.0 (1.3 to 2.8)7.8 (6.5 to 9.1)19.1 (17.2 to 21.1)30.2 (27.3 to 33.1)
30.8 (0.3 to 1.3)1.9 (1.2 to 2.7)7.2 (6.0 to 8.5)17.1 (15.3 to 19.0)27.4 (24.7 to 30.0)
42.9 (2.0 to 3.9)6.5 (5.2 to 7.7)16.8 (15.0 to 18.5)39.0 (36.6 to 41.3)61.5 (58.7 to 64.2)
 5512.2 (1.5 to 2.9)6.6 (5.4 to 7.8)25.4 (23.2 to 27.6)50.1 (46.5 to 53.1)
22.0 (1.3 to 2.7)6.0 (4.8 to 7.1)17.7 (15.8 to 19.6)29.1 (26.1 to 32.0)
31.7 (1.1 to 2.3)5.4 (4.4 to 6.5)15.6 (13.8 to 17.5)26.2 (23.5 to 28.9)
44.6 (3.6 to 5.6)11.2 (9.7 to 12.7)35.5 (33.0 to 37.9)60.0 (57.0 to 63.0)68.9 (65.5 to 72.3)
 6516.8 (5.5 to 8.0)20.7 (18.6 to 22.9)47.9 (44.7 to 51.2)
25.0 (3.9 to 6.1)12.8 (11.0 to 14.6)25.3 (22.2 to 28.4)
34.4 (3.4 to 5.5)11.2 (9.5 to 12.8)22.7 (19.9 to 25.5)
411.3 (9.6 to 13.0)28.5 (25.9 to 31.0)57.2 (53.8 to 60.6)67.8 (63.9 to 71.6)
 75119.0 (16.1 to 22.0)37.7 (33.5 to 41.8)
27.3 (5.3 to 9.2)15.6 (12.3 to 19.0)
37.1 (5.2 to 9.0)14.4 (11.3 to 17.4)
422.3 (18.8 to 25.8)44.5 (39.7 to 49.2)60.7 (54.9 to 66.5)
 80125.6 (20.6 to 30.3)39.6 (33.4 to 45.8)
210.0 (6.6 to 13.4)
38.8 (5.8 to 11.8)13.5 (9.4 to 17.7)
431.7 (26.0 to 37.5)50.2 (42.8 to 57.6)
Men
 4510.2 (0 to 0.5)1.4 (0.8 to 2.0)5.1 (4.0 to 6.2)15.6 (13.7 to 17.5)35.3 (32.4 to 38.3)
20.2 (0 to 0.5)1.4 (0.8 to 2.0)4.4 (3.3 to 5.4)11.4 (9.8 to 13.1)17.4 (15.1 to 19.7)
30.2 (0 to 0.5)1.2 (0.6 to 1.7)3.6 (2.6 to 4.5)8.2 (6.8 to 9.6)13.9 (11.8 to 15.9)
40.5 (0.1 to 0.9)2.5 (1.7 to 3.3)8.6 (7.2 to 9.9)20.4 (18.3 to 22.4)40.0 (37.0 to 42.9)
 5511.4 (0.8 to 2.0)3.8 (2.9 to 4.8)14.8 (12.9 to 16.7)35.3 (32.3 to 38.3)
21.1 (0.6 to 1.6)3.1 (2.2 to 3.9)10.5 (8.8 to 12.1)16.6 (14.4 to 18.9)
31.1 (0.6 to 1.6)2.5 (1.7 to 3.2)7.3 (5.9 to 8.7)13.2 (11.1 to 15.3)
42.6 (1.8 to 3.4)6.5 (5.3 to 7.7)19.0 (17.0 to 21.1)39.9 (36.9 to 43.0)45.1 (41.8 to 48.4)
 6514.1 (3.0 to 5.2)12.5 (10.5 to 14.4)35.9 (32.6 to 39.3)
22.7 (1.8 to 3.6)8.4 (6.7 to 10.0)15.4 (12.9 to 17.8)
32.1 (1.3 to 2.9)5.4 (4.1 to 6.8)12.1 (9.8 to 14.3)
45.5 (4.2 to 6.8)15.0 (12.9 to 17.2)40.0 (36.5 to 43.5)46.2 (42.4 to 50.1)
 75114.7 (11.9 to 17.4)31.3 (27.3 to 35.4)
26.4 (4.5 to 8.2)8.9 (6.4 to 11.3)
34.3 (2.8 to 5.9)8.3 (6.0 to 10.7)
416.1 (13.1 to 19.1)34.4 (30.1 to 38.7)42.9 (38.0 to 47.9)
 80123.3 (18.6 to 28.0)32.0 (26.5 to 37.6)
23.2 (1.2 to 5.3)
35.1 (2.7 to 7.5)7.8 (4.5 to 11.0)
425.7 (20.6 to 30.8)35.2 (29.3 to 41.2)
  • Risk is shown as the percentage (95% confidence interval). Risk was not determined for missing cells because of the small number of events. Lifetime risk estimates are adjusted for competing risk of death. Sensitivity is indicated as follows: 1, requires two consecutive measurements of eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 or one measurement of eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 if it was at the last measurement of eGFR due to death or lack of subsequent creatinine measurement or ESRD; 2, requires eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 on two occasions or eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 on the first measurement if the participant died before the second measurement or ESRD; 3, requires eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 on two occasions or one eGFR<45 ml/min per 1.73 m2 if it was at the last measurement of eGFR due to death or lack of subsequent creatinine measurement or ESRD; and 4, requires only one measurement of eGFR<60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 irrespective of the results of follow-up measurements and was used for comparison with previous reports or ESRD. See Supplemental Table 1 for more details on the definitions of the four sensitivity definitions of CKD.