Table 3.

Final multivariable model for 5-year risk of mortality for participants with CKD in the Cardiovascular Health Study

CovariateBias-Corrected CoefficientBias-Corrected Hazard Ratio (95% Confidence Interval)P Value
Age (per 5 yr older)0.431.54 (1.35 to 1.75)0.001
Men0.201.22 (0.95 to 1.63)0.10
White0.291.33 (0.96 to 1.98)0.10
eGFR creatinine (per SD=11 ml/min per 1.73 m2)0.161.18 (1.03 to 1.35)0.01
Urine albumin-to-creatinine ratio (mg/g)0.480.001
  ≤301.00 (reference)
 >301.61 (1.18 to 2.17)
Diabetes0.411.51 (1.11 to 2.01)0.001
Smoking<0.01
 Never1.00 (reference)
 Former0.321.38 (1.05 to 1.80)
 Current0.772.16 (1.33 to 3.46)
Prevalent heart failure0.852.33 (1.70 to 3.25)0.001
Prevalent stroke0.351.42 (0.93 to 2.13)0.07
  • The Cardiovascular Health Study equation: 5-year mortality risk prediction equation: 1−0.8307127exp(∑βx−6.915019), where β is the regression coefficient, and x is the level for each risk factor. To compute 1-year risk of mortality, the formula Embedded Image; c statistic=0.72 (95% confidence interval, 0.68 to 0.74) can be used. Calibration value (using the linear predictor)=7.80 (P=0.40).