Table 2.

The association of retinopathy with the incidence of ESRD

LevelAt Risk (n)ESRD (%)aModel 1 (Unadjusted)Model 2 (Partially Adjusted)Model 3 (Partially Adjusted)Model 4 (Fully Adjusted)
HR (95% CI)P ValueHR (95% CI)P ValueHR (95% CI)P ValueHR (95% CI)P Value
Any retinopathy
 No retinopathy12183.31.00<0.0011.000.0031.00<0.0011.00<0.001
 Retinopathy52514.94.44 (3.12 to 6.31)<0.001b1.98 (1.21 to 3.26)0.004b1.58 (1.00 to 2.50)0.049b1.26 (0.76 to 2.11)0.36b
 Ungradable10418.25.43 (3.22 to 9.16)3.03 (1.58 to 5.82)3.80 (2.19 to 6.58)3.19 (1.79 to 5.68)
Retinal level
 No retinopathy12183.31.00<0.0011.000.011.00<0.0011.00<0.001
 Mild NPR1338.22.45 (1.30 to 4.63)<0.001b1.99 (0.99 to 4.03)0.07b1.44 (0.71 to 2.94)0.10b1.27 (0.60 to 2.71)0.35b
 NPR22615.94.76 (3.11 to 7.27)1.96 (1.01 to 3.79)2.04 (1.14 to 3.65)1.61 (0.82 to 3.13)
 PR16618.95.65 (3.65 to 8.76)2.00 (1.10 to 3.62)1.33 (0.75 to 2.36)1.04 (0.56 to 1.93)
 Ungradable10418.25.43 (3.22 to 9.16)3.03 (1.56 to 5.87)3.85 (2.20 to 6.74)3.20 (1.77 to 5.77)
Arteriole diameter, quartile (µm)
 First (≤140)3826.71.000.171.000.131.000.271.000.11
 Second (>140, ≤149)3873.70.54 (0.30 to 0.99)0.44 (0.22 to 0.89)0.57 (0.28 to 1.16)0.64 (0.30 to 1.37)
 Third (>149, ≤159)3836.71.00 (0.61 to 1.66)0.91 (0.51 to 1.62)1.08 (0.62 to 1.89)1.27 (0.67 to 2.37)
 Fourth (>159)3895.50.82 (0.49 to 1.39)0.83 (0.46 to 1.48)1.12 (0.62 to 1.99)1.59 (0.86 to 2.93)
 Per-unit increase15415.70.99 (0.83 to 1.19)0.941.03 (0.85 to 1.25)0.760.99 (0.83 to 1.18)0.911.20 (0.97 to 1.49)0.09
Venular diameter, quartile (µm)
 First (≤204)3927.01.000.131.000.101.000.531.000.73
 Second (>204, ≤219)3893.50.50 (0.27 to 0.90)0.61 (0.31 to 1.21)0.70 (0.39 to 1.28)0.84 (0.42 to 1.67)
 Third (>219, ≤236)3775.80.83 (0.50 to 1.38)0.55 (0.30 to 1.01)0.69 (0.38 to 1.27)0.68 (0.35 to 1.34)
 Fourth (>236)3836.30.90 (0.55 to 1.50)0.52 (0.30 to 0.93)0.66 (0.34 to 1.29)0.80 (0.43 to 1.50)
 Per-unit increase15415.71.01 (0.84 to 1.21)0.950.88 (0.73 to 1.06)0.190.95 (0.79 to 1.14)0.570.91 (0.74 to 1.13)0.39
Arteriolar/venular ratio, quartile
 First (≤0.64)3747.41.000.021.00<0.0011.000.031.00<0.001
 Second (>0.64, ≤0.68)3885.30.71 (0.42 to 1.20)1.15 (0.63 to 2.07)1.01 (0.53 to 1.91)1.25 (0.64 to 2.44)
 Third (>0.68, ≤0.73)3883.00.40 (0.21 to 0.75)0.56 (0.26 to 1.20)0.71 (0.36 to 1.39)0.59 (0.27 to 1.28)
 Fourth (>0.73)3917.20.98 (0.60 to 1.58)3.10 (1.73 to 5.57)1.80 (0.93 to 3.49)3.11 (1.51 to 6.40)
 Per-unit increase15415.70.95 (0.79 to 1.15)0.631.21 (0.98 to 1.49)0.071.06 (0.89 to 1.27)0.521.32 (1.03 to 1.70)0.03
  • Model 1 is unadjusted. Model 2 is adjusted for age, systolic BP, race, diabetes, BMI, smoking status, clinical site, and 24-hour urine protein. Model 3 is adjusted for age, systolic BP, race, diabetes, BMI, smoking status, clinical site, and eGFR. Model 4 is adjusted for age, systolic BP, race, diabetes, BMI, smoking status, clinical site, 24-hour urine protein, and eGFR. HR, hazard ratio; 95% CI, 95% confidence interval. .

  • a Percentage of ESRD, 2-year cumulative incidence rate.

  • b P value for comparison excluding ungradable photographs.