Table 2.

The annual probability of transplant, mortality, and graft survival stratified by age and year

Annual Transitional ProbabilityYearSource
123
Proportion of waitlisted patients who receive a DD transplant—current systemUSRDS
 18–50 yr0.11910.13140.1502
 51–65 yr0.10800.12510.1369
Proportion of waitlisted patients who receive a DD transplant—paid systemaUSRDS
 18–50 yr0.12010.13390.1554
 51–65 yr0.10870.12870.1434
Proportion of waitlisted patients who receive an LD transplant—current systemUSRDS
 18–50 yr0.04830.03120.0227
 51–65 yr0.03270.02360.0149
Proportion of waitlisted patients who receive an LD transplant—paid systemaUSRDS
 18–50 yr0.00840.00820.0089
 51–65 yr0.00700.00760.0079
Proportion of patients with a DD kidney with a failed graftCORR 2000–2009
 18–50 yr0.0350.0470.019
 51–65 yr0.0350.0520.015
Proportion of patients with an LD kidney with a failed graftCORR
 18–50 yr0.0170.0250.009
 51–65 yr0.0180.0270.008
Proportion of patients with a failed graft who return to dialysis and are on transplant waiting listUSRDS
 18–50 yr0.420.530.58
 51–65 yr0.370.500.56
Proportion of patients with a DD kidney who dieCORR
 18–50 yr0.0040.0110.01
 51–65 yr0.0170.0360.028
Proportion of patients with an LD kidney who dieCORR
 18–50 yr0.0010.0050.005
 51–65 yr0.0040.0120.014
Proportion of patients waitlisted on dialysis who dieUSRDS
 18–50 yr0.04860.06890.0940
 51–65 yr0.08240.11840.1713
Proportion of patients on dialysis with a failed graft who dieFrom ref. 26
 18–50 yr0.08650.08610.1175
 51–65 yr0.14670.1480.2141
Proportion of patients on dialysis who are removed from the waiting listUSRDS
 18–50 yr0.01290.01940.0321
 51–65 yr0.01520.02240.0338
Proportion of patients who are never transplanted, are on dialysis and no longer eligible for transplant, or dieUSRDS 2007 Report
 18–50 yr0.140.140.14
 51–65 yr0.21980.21980.2198
  • DD, deceased donor; USRDS, US Renal Data Service; LD, living donor; CORR, Canadian Organ Replacement Register.

  • a Probabilities used in the paid arm of the model.