Table 2.

Unadjusted and multivariate-adjusted hazard ratios for the development of ESRD in the derivation cohort

Variables Patients (n) Events (n)UnadjustedMultivariate-Adjusteda
HR (95% CI)P ValueHR (95% CI)P Value
Age
 <30 yr 307251.00 (reference)Not selected
 30–59 yr 326431.23 (0.75 to 2.02)0.41
 ≥60 yr 6551.20 (0.46 to 3.16)0.71
Sex
 Women358381.00 (reference)Not selected
 Men340351.19 (0.75 to 1.89)0.46
Hypertensionb
 No520431.00 (reference)Not selected
 Yes175291.89 (1.18 to 3.03)0.01
Dyslipidemiac
 No369201.00 (reference)Not selected
 Yes314523.44 (2.05 to 5.76)<0.001
Urinary protein excretion
 <0.5 g/24 hr26621.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)
 0.5–1.0 g/24 hr16385.85 (1.24 to 27.6)<0.0013.32 (0.69 to 15.9)0.13
 1.0–3.5 g/24 hr2174725.3 (6.1 to 104.0)<0.0016.26 (1.46 to 26.9)0.01
 ≥3.5 g/24 hr521671.4 (16.4 to 313.9)<0.00116.2 (3.47 to 75.2)<0.001
Estimated GFR
 ≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m2506251.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)
 30–59 ml/min per 1.73 m2155263.96 (2.30 to 6.94)<0.0011.37 (0.71 to 2.64)0.35
 15–29 ml/min per 1.73 m2301630.6 (15.4 to 60.7)<0.0013.27 (1.45 to 7.40)0.003
 <15 ml/min per 1.73 m276115.9 (45.0 to 298.6)<0.00113.8 (4.54 to 42.0)<0.001
Pathologic measures (Oxford classification)
 Mesangial hypercellularity score
  M0 (≤0.5 of glomeruli)613471.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)
  M1 (>0.5 of glomeruli)85265.48 (3.38 to 8.90)<0.0011.78 (1.05 to 3.01)0.03
 Endocapillary hypercellularity
  E0 (absence)449491.00 (reference)Not selected
  E1 (presence)249241.33 (0.81 to 2.19)0.26
 Segmental glomerulosclerosis
  S0 (absence)20771.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)
  S1 (presence)491665.25 (2.37 to 11.7)<0.0013.61 (1.54 to 8.47)0.003
 Tubular atrophy/interstitial  fibrosis
  T0 (≤25%)551201.00 (reference)1.00 (reference)
  T1 (26%–50%)98249.95 (5.39 to 18.4)<0.0015.27 (2.63 to 10.6)<0.001
  T2 (>50%)492957.2 (29.8 to 109.8)<0.00119.7 (8.47 to 45.7)<0.001
  • HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval.

  • a Variables were selected by using a Cox proportional hazard model and a stepwise backward method with P<0.05 for remaining variables to determine the risk factors for the development of ESRD. Neither age nor sex was a significant risk factor for the development of ESRD in univariate analysis.

  • b Hypertension was defined as BP≥140/90 mmHg and/or current treatment with antihypertensive agents.

  • c Dyslipidemia was defined as serum total cholesterol≥220 mg/dl and/or serum triglyceride≥150 mg/dl.