Table 4.

Cox regression analyses for cardiovascular and all-cause mortality and graft failure per fibroblast growth factor 23 tertile or per 1 SD of natural log fibroblast growth factor 23

VariablePlasma FGF23 TertilesNatural Log FGF23
Tertile 1Tertile 2Tertile 3P ValueaPer 1 SDP ValueAICHarrell C-Index
Cardiovascular mortality, HR (95% CI)
 Model 1 Reference1.66 (0.78 to 3.54)4.24 (2.17 to 8.29)<0.0011.97 (1.52 to 2.55)<0.0016450.706
 Model 2 Reference1.62 (0.75 to 3.50)4.02 (1.90 to 8.50)<0.0011.98 (1.44 to 2.74)<0.0016480.706
 Model 3 Reference1.39 (0.55 to 3.50)4.20 (1.90 to 9.81)<0.0011.93 (1.33 to 2.80)0.0018000.801
 Model 4 Reference1.59 (0.58 to 4.14)4.06 (1.55 to 9.98)0.0032.27 (1.37 to 3.75)0.0014790.810
 Model 5 Reference1.86 (0.67 to 5.18)2.96 (1.06 to 8.26)0.041.88 (1.11 to 3.19)0.024670.843
All-cause mortality, HR (95% CI)
 Model 1 Reference1.47 (0.87 to 2.48)3.64 (2.29 to 5.78)<0.0011.99 (1.65 to 2.39)<0.00112450.694
 Model 2 Reference1.36 (0.80 to 2.32)2.94 (1.73 to 4.98)<0.0011.86 (1.46 to 2.36)<0.00112370.693
 Model 3 Reference1.03 (0.55 to 1.93)3.15 (1.69 to 5.85)<0.0011.93 (1.45 to 2.56)<0.00115420.768
 Model 4 Reference1.06 (0.53 to 2.11)2.63 (1.32 to 5.24)0.0042.18 (1.50 to 3.18)<0.0018690.778
 Model 5 Reference1.17 (0.58 to 2.36)2.23 (1.11 to 4.49)0.021.86 (1.27 to 2.73)0.0018580.799
Graft failure, HR (95% CI)
 Model 1 Reference1.06 (0.40 to 2.83)6.29 (2.92 to 13.44)<0.0013.37 (2.56 to 4.42)<0.0015150.762
 Model 2 Reference0.54 (0.20 to 1.46)1.15 (0.47 to 2.84)0.411.49 (0.99 to 2.24)0.064630.861
 Model 3 Reference0.53 (0.18 to 1.57)0.80 (0.29 to 2.24)0.991.15 (0.73 to 1.82)0.555400.885
 Model 4 Reference0.35 (0.10 to 1.22)0.39 (0.12 to 1.30)0.251.00 (0.59 to 1.71)0.993270.907
 Model 5 Reference0.32 (0.09 to 1.21)0.37 (0.11 to 1.32)0.251.03 (0.59 to 1.78)0.933310.909
  • Model 1: crude model; model 2: adjusted for estimated GFR (CKD-Epidemiology Collaboration formula) and proteinuria; model 3: model 2 + adjusted for cardiovascular disease history, Framingham risk factors (recipient age and sex, systolic BP, antihypertensive treatment use, smoking status, diabetes mellitus, plasma total cholesterol, and HDL cholesterol), and transplant vintage; model 4: model 3 + adjusted for serum phosphate, 1,25(OH)2-vitamin D, parathyroid hormone levels, and active vitamin D use; model 5: model 4 + adjusted for N-terminal-pro brain natriuretic peptide, pro–A-type natriuretic peptide, and copeptin. HR, hazard ratio; CI, confidence interval; AIC, Akaike information criterion.

  • a P for linear trend.