Table 3.

Time to doubling of serum creatinine or graft loss counted as recurrent events according to the marginal method (8) and according to the conditional method with clock set to previous event at the next event, by baseline risk factors

Method and Risk FactorHazard Ratio per Unit Difference (95% CI)P Value
Marginal method
 Smoking1.97 (1.56–2.47)<0.001
 Systolic BP1.16 (1.04–1.28)0.007
 Creatinine1.98 (1.79–2.09)<0.001
 Diabetes mellitus1.21 (0.94–1.54)0.14
 Time since last transplant1.13 (1.04–1.23)0.006
 HLA mismatch 11.34 (1.07–1.69)0.01
 HLA mismatch 21.54 (1.14–2.07)0.005
 Hemoglobin0.82 (0.73–0.91)<0.001
 Proteinuria (score)1.30 (1.23–1.38)<0.001
Conditional (time from event to event)
 Smoking2.05 (1.56–2.71)<0.001
 Systolic BP (mmHg)1.10 (0.96–1.28)0.13
 Creatinine1.98 (1.79–2.09)<0.001
 Diabetes mellitus1.25 (0.92–1.69)0.15
 Time since last transplant1.14 (1.02–1.27)0.02
 HLA mismatch 11.44 (1.09–1.90)0.01
 HLA mismatch 21.75 (1.23–2.49)0.002
 Hemoglobin0.74 (0.65–0.84)<0.001
 Proteinuria (score)1.30 (1.21–1.40)<0.001
Competing risk and conditional model (combined)
 Smoking1.67 (1.18–2.35)0.004
 Systolic BP (mmHg)0.98 (0.84–1.12)0.7
 Creatinine1.45 (1.24–1.61)<0.001
 Diabetes mellitus0.86 (0.59–1.23)0.4
 Time since last transplant1.10 (0.95–1.27)0.22
 HLA mismatch 11.24 (0.90–1.71)0.19
 HLA mismatch 21.17 (0.74–1.86)0.51
 Hemoglobin0.73 (0.62–0.87)<0.001
 Proteinuria (score)1.35 (1.27–1.44)<0.001
  • There were 407 cases during 7 years of follow-up out of 1487 patients with complete data. CI, confidence interval.