Table 3.

Prediction model of pertinent factors for mortality using AUC

VariableAUC
Traditional cardiovascular risk factors0.75 (0.70−0.80)
VCAM-10.76 (0.71−0.80)
VCAM-1 + albumin0.78 (0.74−0.83)
VCAM-1 + albumin + IL-60.79 (0.75−0.84)
VCAM-1 + albumin + IL-6 + DcR30.80 (0.75−0.84)
  • Risk prediction was assessed by the C statistic. Each variable was stepwise added to assess the incremental change in AUC for predicting mortality at 48 months. Traditional cardiovascular risk factors included age, sex, smoking status, diabetes, total cholesterol, and systolic BP in the model. AUC, area under the ROC curve; VCAM-1, vascular cell adhesion molecule-1; DcR3, decoy receptor 3.