Table 3.

Association of cardiac concentricity with incident CKDa among MESA participants with baseline eGFRcr ≥60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 by Poisson regression

PredictornDemographic Adjusted IRRbFully Adjusted IRRc
Incident CKD defined by eGFRcr 457
 concentricity
  continuous (per SD=0.24)38661.17 (1.09, 1.26)1.08 (1.00, 1.18)
  quartile (g/ml)
   1 (<0.95 for women, <1.06 for men)966ReferenceReference
   2 (0.95–1.06 for women, 1.06–1.17 for men)9671.03 (0.79, 1.35)0.99 (0.76, 1.30)
   3 (1.07–1.20 for women, 1.18–1.35 for men)9671.12 (0.86, 1.44)1.07 (0.83, 1.40)
   4 (≥1.20 for women, ≥1.35 for men)9661.43 (1.12, 1.82)1.21 (0.94, 1.56)
Incident CKD defined by eGFRcys 158
 concentricity
  continuous (per SD=0.24)38661.19 (1.04, 1.35)1.16 (1.00, 1.35)
  quartile (g/ml)
   1 (<0.95 for women, <1.06 for men)966ReferenceReference
   2 (0.95–1.06 for women, 1.06–1.17 for men)9671.17 (0.67, 2.05)1.18 (0.64, 2.18)
   3 (1.07–1.20 for women, 1.18–1.35 for men)9671.44 (0.85, 2.43)1.57 (0.88, 2.78)
   4 (≥1.20 for women, ≥1.35 for men)9661.72 (1.04, 2.82)1.63 (0.92, 2.88)
Incident CKD defined by both eGFRcr and eGFRcys 116
 concentricity
  continuous (per SD=0.24)38661.21 (1.05, 1.40)1.20 (1.01, 1.41)
  quartile (g/ml)
   1 (<0.95 for women, <1.06 for men)966ReferenceReference
   2 (0.95–1.06 for women, 1.06–1.17 for men)9671.38 (0.68, 2.81)1.37 (0.64, 2.92)
   3 (1.07–1.20 for women, 1.18–1.35 for men)9671.98 (1.02, 3.86)1.94 (0.94, 4.03)
   4 (≥1.20 for women, ≥1.35 for men)9662.73 (1.45, 5.14)2.23 (1.09, 4.54)
  • Values in parentheses are 95% confidence intervals. MESA, Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis; eGFRcr, estimated GFR by creatinine; eGFRcys, estimated GFR by cystatin C; IRR, incident rate ratio.

  • a Incident CKD defined as eGFR <60 ml/min per 1.73 m2 and a decline in eGFR of >1 ml/min per year.

  • b Demographic adjusted for age, race, education level, baseline eGFR (creatinine for creatinine models; cystatin C for cystatin C models; both for third model).

  • c Fully adjusted for the above variables plus body mass index, systolic BP, hypertension medications, diabetes, HDL, IL-6, and C-reactive protein.