Table 3c.

Logistic regression analysis with variables available for predicting renal recovery and model accuracy after combining variables: Combine clinical model with biomarkers model

ModelAUC (95% CI)Pd
Day 1
    M1 + uNGAL0.74 (0.62 to 0.86)0.56
    M1 + uNGAL/MMP-90.75 (0.63 to 0.87)0.05
    M1 + uIL-180.76 (0.64 to 0.87)0.09
    M1 + uHGF0.75 (0.63 to 0.87)0.08
    M1 + uCystatin C0.75 (0.63 to 0.87)0.02
    M1 + uNGAL + uHGF0.75 (0.63 to 0.87)0.25
    M1 + uCystatin C + uNGAL + uIL-18 + uHGFa0.78 (0.67 to 0.89)0.02
Day 14c
    M1 + uNGAL0.80 (0.60 to 0.99)0.85
    M1 + uNGAL/MMP-90.83 (0.65 to 1.00)0.16
    M1 + uIL-180.72 (0.51 to 0.93)0.56
    M1 + uHGF0.82 (0.63 to 1.00)0.04
    M1 + uCystatin C0.73 (0.51 to 0.94)0.32
    M1 + uNGAL + uHGF0.83 (0.65 to 1.02)0.03
    M1 + uHGF + uNGAL + uIL-18 + uCystatin Ca0.87 (0.69 to 1.06)<0.01
Largest relative changeb
    M1 + uNGAL0.91 (0.83 to 0.99)0.08
    M1 + uNGAL/MMP-90.84 (0.72 to 0.95)0.62
    M1 + uIL-180.82 (0.70 to 0.95)0.56
    M1 + uHGF0.85 (0.73 to 0.96)0.46
    M1 + uCystatin C0.85 (0.73 to 0.96)0.80
    M1 + uNGAL + uHGF0.93 (0.86 to 1.00)<0.01
    M1 + uHGF + uNGAL + uCystatin C + uNGAL/MMP-9 + uIL-18a0.94 (0.87 to 1.00)<0.01
  • AUC, area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve; CI, confidence interval; M1, clinical model combining of age and Charlson comorbidity index; uNGAL, urinary neutrophil gelatinase-associated lipocalin; uCystatin C, urinary cystatin C; MMP-9, matrix metalloproteinase-9; uHGF, urinary hepatocyte growth factor.

  • a Best prediction model (greatest AUC), combine clinical model with biomarkers.

  • b Largest relative change in the first 14 days as compared to day 1.

  • c SOFA score on day 14 did not improve AUC.

  • d Compared with M1 model.