Epidemiology of Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease in Olmsted County

Background and objectives The prevalence of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) remains controversial. Incidence rates in Olmsted County, Minnesota, during 1935–1980 were previously reported. The current work extends this study to 2016.

Design, setting, participants, & measurements The Rochester Epidemiology Project and radiology databases of Mayo Clinic and Olmsted Medical Center (healthcare providers for Olmsted County) were searched to identify all subjects meeting diagnostic criteria for definite, likely, and possible ADPKD. Annual incidence rates were calculated using incident cases during 1980–2016 as numerator and age- and sex-specific estimates of the population of Olmsted County as denominator. Point prevalence was calculated using prevalence cases as numerator and age- and sex-specific estimates of the population of Olmsted County on January 1, 2010 as denominator. Survival curves from the time of diagnosis were compared with expected survival of the Minnesota population.

Results The age- and sex-adjusted annual incidence of definite and likely ADPKD diagnosis during 1980–2016 was 3.06 (95% CI, 2.52 to 3.60) per 100,000 person-years, which is 2.2 times higher than that previously reported for 1935–1980 (1.38 per 100,000 person-years). The point prevalence of definite or likely ADPKD on January 1, 2010 was 68 (95% CI, 53.90 to 82.13) per 100,000 population. Much higher incidence rates and point prevalence were obtained when possible ADPKD cases were included. Contrary to the previous Olmsted County study, patient survival in this study was not different from that in the general population.

Conclusions The point prevalence of definite and likely ADPKD observed in this study is higher than those reported in the literature, but lower than genetic prevalence based on estimates of disease expectancy or on analysis of large population-sequencing databases.