Derivation and Validation of a Novel Risk Score to Predict Overcorrection of Severe Hyponatremia

Background and objectives Osmotic demyelination syndrome is the most concerning complication of severe hyponatremia, occurring with an overly rapid rate of serum sodium correction. There are limited clinical tools to aid in identifying individuals at high risk of overcorrection with severe hyponatremia.

Design, setting, participants, & measurements We identified all patients who presented to a tertiary-care hospital emergency department in Ottawa, Canada (catchment area 1.2 million) between January 1, 2003 and December 31, 2015, with serum sodium (corrected for glucose levels) <116 mmol/L. Overcorrection was determined using 14 published criteria. Latent class analysis measured the independent association of baseline factors with a consensus overcorrection status on the basis of the 14 criteria, and was summarized as a risk score, which was validated in two cohorts.

Results A total of 623 patients presented with severe hyponatremia (mean initial value 112 mmol/L; SD 3.2). The prevalence of no, unlikely, possible, and definite overcorrection was 72%, 4%, 10%, and 14%, respectively. Overcorrection was independently associated with decreased level of consciousness (2 points), vomiting (2 points), severe hypokalemia (1 point), hypotonic urine (4 points), volume overload (−5 points), chest tumor (−5 points), patient age (−1 point per decade, over 50 years), and initial sodium level (<110 mmol/L: 4 points; 110–111 mmol/L: 2 points; 112–113 mmol/L: 1 point). These points were summed to create the Severe Hyponatremic Overcorrection Risk (SHOR) score, which was significantly associated with overcorrection status (Spearman correlation 0.45; 95% confidence interval, 0.36 to 0.49) and was discriminating (average dichotomized c-statistic 0.77; 95% confidence interval, 0.73 to 0.81). The internal (n=119) and external (n=95) validation cohorts had significantly greater use of desmopressin, which was significantly associated with the SHOR score. The SHOR score was significantly associated with overcorrection status in the internal (P<0.001) but not external (P=0.39) validation cohort.

Conclusions In patients presenting with severe hyponatremia, overcorrection was common and predictable using baseline information. Further external validation of the SHOR is required before generalized use.